# All recorded fair value estimates

What a named person says an asset is worth, given without a deadline: recorded as said, not checked

Updated Nov 8, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/

Each row is one fair value estimate by a named person: the asset, the price when it was said and the value the person gave. An estimate has no date by which the price should get there, so it is never marked Hit or Missed; the difference shows how far the value was from the close of the day before. Every row links to a page with the exact quote and the original source.

## Fair value estimates

A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.

| Person | Asset | Said | Price when said | Fair value | Difference | Estimate | Quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Alphabet](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/alphabet/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $279.84 | $350 | +25% | [#f8a2d](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-alphabet-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=507s) | “My price target and fair value of Google today is 350.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Amazon](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/amazon/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $240.35 | $350 | +46% | [#48513](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-amazon-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=461s) | “But for now, my price target or fair value assessment of Amazon is at 350.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [ASML](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/asml/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,566 | $1,800 | +15% | [#f1d45](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-asml-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=883s) | “So, I took some off the table and I still wanted to keep a large position in ASML, and that's where we stand now. Now, when I look at this company, there is the mathematical valuation of it, which puts it around $1,500 per share, but then when I do my fair value assessment and I factor in the strength of the moat and how unique it is, I bump up my fair value a little bit more. So, my fair value, my price target is around $1,800 per share.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Costco](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/costco/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,012 | $800 | −21% | [#07bf5](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-costco-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=939s) | “When I look at Costco, I believe the stock is overvalued to some degree. So, right now it trades at $1,000 per share. I think it's worth around $800. That's my fair value.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [DoorDash](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/doordash/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $178.99 | $250 | +40% | [#199a9](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-doordash-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1385s) | “For example, my fair value of DoorDash is 250.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Duolingo](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/duolingo/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $131.59 | $200 | +52% | [#80254](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-duolingo-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1258s) | “Duolingo currently trades at $135. I believe the fair value today is around $200, which is lower than my previous fair values on this company.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Mastercard](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/mastercard/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $638.01 | $700 | +9.7% | [#e82e6](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-mastercard-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=278s) | “But, this isn't a whole review of MasterCard. This is the valuation and what I believe is a fair value today. Right now, the stock trades at $6.59 and I believe the fair value is around $700 per share.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Meta Platforms](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/meta/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $614.99 | $850 | +38% | [#fe090](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-meta-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=638s) | “My price target or fair value assessment of Meta is around $850 today, which is around a 40% upside.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Microsoft](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/microsoft/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $521.91 | $550 | +5.4% | [#2685d](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-microsoft-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=785s) | “I put Microsoft's fair value, or my price target, at 550.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Moody's](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/moodys/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $493.91 | $500 | +1.2% | [#063fd](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-moodys-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1210s) | “With Moody's, this is another one that I believe is very close to its fair value. I have it at $500 per share.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Netflix](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/netflix/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $62.08 | $100 | +61% | [#eb0d4](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-netflix-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1035s) | “I've continued to add to Netflix, so I've raised my cost basis over time because I believe strongly that Netflix is mispriced. Currently, it trades at $62 per share. I believe the fair value of the company is around $100, which would be around a 60% increase in its current price.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [S&P Global](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp-global/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $466.55 | $550 | +18% | [#1df9a](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-sp-global-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=729s) | “And I believe that the fair value of S&P Global is around 550.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Texas Roadhouse](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/texas-roadhouse/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $182.52 | $200 | +9.6% | [#0af83](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-texas-roadhouse-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1159s) | “Regardless, Texas Roadhouse is a fantastic company. It's trading at 186 today. There's concerns about beef pricing and commodity inflation, but I believe that Texas Roadhouse will navigate that better than any of its competitors, which creates that really strong traffic growth in the company. We have KPIs that track this over time and it shows that the weekly average sales for the company continue to rise. They're now making $177,000 in sales every week on average. When I was first buying this company, it was less than a 100K. So, really impressive growth there. I really like what I see with this company. But, in terms of my fair value, I believe it's worth today around $200 per share.” |
| [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) | [Uber](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/uber/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $65.25 | $90 | +38% | [#c9a32](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-uber-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1350s) | “My fair value of Uber is $90.” |

[Why fair value estimates are not checked](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#fair-value)