# Joseph Carlson's $550 fair value for Microsoft

Updated Nov 8, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-microsoft-fair-value-2026-11/

On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of Microsoft at $550 per share on YouTube. Microsoft closed at $521.91 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 5.4% above the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Kind | Fair value estimate |
| Person | [Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) |
| Asset | [Microsoft (MSFT)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/microsoft/) |
| Outlet | YouTube |
| Said on | Nov 2, 2026, at 13:05 |
| Quote | “I put Microsoft's fair value, or my price target, at 550.” |
| Price when said | $521.91 |
| Fair value | $550 |
| Difference | +5.4% |
| Deadline | None |
| Source | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=785s) |
| Archive | None |
| Public ID | #2685d |

## What was said

[Joseph Carlson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/) · Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours

YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 13:05 · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=785s)

> I put Microsoft's fair value, or my price target, at 550.

Carlson said Microsoft already trades at a 25 forward P/E and a 1.57 free cash flow yield after recovering this year from a cloud and software scare. He said it is trading close to his fair value and is not deeply undervalued.

## The estimate

- Price when said: $521.91 (Oct 30, 2026) · [price data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/?period1=1792886400&period2=1793491200)
- Fair value: $550 (+5.4%)

A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.

[Why fair value estimates are not checked](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#fair-value)

## More on this estimate

- [Joseph Carlson's fair value estimates](https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/)
- [Microsoft fair value estimates](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/microsoft/)

## Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson

| Asset | Said | Price when said | Fair value | Difference | Estimate | Quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Alphabet](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/alphabet/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $279.84 | $350 | +25% | [#f8a2d](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-alphabet-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=507s) | “My price target and fair value of Google today is 350.” |
| [Amazon](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/amazon/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $240.35 | $350 | +46% | [#48513](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-amazon-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=461s) | “But for now, my price target or fair value assessment of Amazon is at 350.” |
| [ASML](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/asml/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,566 | $1,800 | +15% | [#f1d45](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-asml-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=883s) | “So, I took some off the table and I still wanted to keep a large position in ASML, and that's where we stand now. Now, when I look at this company, there is the mathematical valuation of it, which puts it around $1,500 per share, but then when I do my fair value assessment and I factor in the strength of the moat and how unique it is, I bump up my fair value a little bit more. So, my fair value, my price target is around $1,800 per share.” |
| [Costco](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/costco/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,012 | $800 | −21% | [#07bf5](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-costco-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=939s) | “When I look at Costco, I believe the stock is overvalued to some degree. So, right now it trades at $1,000 per share. I think it's worth around $800. That's my fair value.” |
| [DoorDash](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/doordash/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $178.99 | $250 | +40% | [#199a9](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-doordash-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1385s) | “For example, my fair value of DoorDash is 250.” |
| [Duolingo](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/duolingo/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $131.59 | $200 | +52% | [#80254](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-duolingo-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1258s) | “Duolingo currently trades at $135. I believe the fair value today is around $200, which is lower than my previous fair values on this company.” |
| [Mastercard](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/mastercard/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $638.01 | $700 | +9.7% | [#e82e6](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-mastercard-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=278s) | “But, this isn't a whole review of MasterCard. This is the valuation and what I believe is a fair value today. Right now, the stock trades at $6.59 and I believe the fair value is around $700 per share.” |
| [Meta Platforms](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/meta/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $614.99 | $850 | +38% | [#fe090](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-meta-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=638s) | “My price target or fair value assessment of Meta is around $850 today, which is around a 40% upside.” |
| [Moody's](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/moodys/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $493.91 | $500 | +1.2% | [#063fd](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-moodys-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1210s) | “With Moody's, this is another one that I believe is very close to its fair value. I have it at $500 per share.” |
| [Netflix](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/netflix/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $62.08 | $100 | +61% | [#eb0d4](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-netflix-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1035s) | “I've continued to add to Netflix, so I've raised my cost basis over time because I believe strongly that Netflix is mispriced. Currently, it trades at $62 per share. I believe the fair value of the company is around $100, which would be around a 60% increase in its current price.” |
| [S&P Global](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp-global/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $466.55 | $550 | +18% | [#1df9a](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-sp-global-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=729s) | “And I believe that the fair value of S&P Global is around 550.” |
| [Texas Roadhouse](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/texas-roadhouse/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $182.52 | $200 | +9.6% | [#0af83](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-texas-roadhouse-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1159s) | “Regardless, Texas Roadhouse is a fantastic company. It's trading at 186 today. There's concerns about beef pricing and commodity inflation, but I believe that Texas Roadhouse will navigate that better than any of its competitors, which creates that really strong traffic growth in the company. We have KPIs that track this over time and it shows that the weekly average sales for the company continue to rise. They're now making $177,000 in sales every week on average. When I was first buying this company, it was less than a 100K. So, really impressive growth there. I really like what I see with this company. But, in terms of my fair value, I believe it's worth today around $200 per share.” |
| [Uber](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/uber/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $65.25 | $90 | +38% | [#c9a32](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-uber-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1350s) | “My fair value of Uber is $90.” |

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