# Arthur Hayes' price predictions

Updated Sep 30, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/

As of September 30, 2026, we track 8 price predictions Arthur Hayes made between 2020 and 2026. Two came true, three did not and three are open. They were about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Most had deadlines at the end of a calendar year.

**Arthur Hayes** · Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom
Links: [X](https://x.com/CryptoHayes) · [Website](https://cryptohayes.substack.com)

Arthur Hayes is chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, an investment fund managed by his family office. He co-founded the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX in 2014 and was its chief executive until 2020, after working as an equity derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup in Hong Kong. He publishes long-form essays on markets and crypto in his newsletter Crypto Trader Digest.

Gives price targets for bitcoin, ether and other crypto tokens, most often in his own essays and in conference talks and interviews that crypto and business outlets then report. The deadlines range from the end of the current year to multi-year targets for the peak of a market cycle, and most of the targets are for prices to rise, with occasional calls for a decline first.

Hit 2 · Missed 3 · Open 3

## Notable calls

The open, came-true and missed call with the largest move from the price when said. A selection, not a rating.

**Boldest open call**

- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-1m-by-2028/) · Open · $97,058 → $1,000,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2028 · #e662b
  “That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.”

**Boldest call that came true**

- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $20,000 by Dec 31, 2020](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-20k-by-2020/) · Hit · $7,370 → $20,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2020 · #afaad
  “The Bitcoin (BTC) price is still on track to hit its all-time high of $20,000 in 2020, according to BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.”

**Boldest call that didn't come true**

- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Mar 31, 2023](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2023/) · Missed · $1,608 → $5,000 · Deadline Mar 31, 2023 · #ba00d
  “Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says he expects Ethereum to reach $5,000 by the end of Q1 2023.”

## All predictions

- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2026/) · Open · $1,859 → $5,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #7ab1d
  “Hayes also forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin at or above $500,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-500k-by-2026/) · Open · $76,349 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #a5999
  “Adding to the bullish sentiment, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of $500,000 and a $200 target for HYPE, in an exclusive interview with Coinpedia, while reaffirming that the majority of his personal wealth remains stored in Bitcoin.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum at or above $10,000 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-10k-by-2025/) · Missed · $3,630 → $10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #c6798
  “My year-end targets: Bitcoin = $250,000. Ether = $10,000.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-1m-by-2028/) · Open · $97,058 → $1,000,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2028 · #e662b
  “That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-250k-by-2025/) · Missed · $82,534 → $250,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0a962
  “I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $70,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-70k-by-2024/) · Hit · $28,070 → $70,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #ba1d4
  “I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Mar 31, 2023](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2023/) · Missed · $1,608 → $5,000 · Deadline Mar 31, 2023 · #ba00d
  “Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says he expects Ethereum to reach $5,000 by the end of Q1 2023.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $20,000 by Dec 31, 2020](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-20k-by-2020/) · Hit · $7,370 → $20,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2020 · #afaad
  “The Bitcoin (BTC) price is still on track to hit its all-time high of $20,000 in 2020, according to BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.”