# Joseph Carlson's fair value estimates

Updated Nov 8, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/people/joseph-carlson/

We have not recorded any price predictions by Joseph Carlson with a target and a deadline. We record 14 fair value estimates by Joseph Carlson, which have no deadline and are not checked.

**Joseph Carlson** · Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
Links: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@JosephCarlsonAfterHours) · [X](https://x.com/joecarlsonshow)

Joseph Carlson hosts The Joseph Carlson Show, a YouTube channel about building a stock portfolio that has published episodes since February 2019, and a second channel, Joseph Carlson After Hours. Both channels show the progress of his own portfolio and discuss investing news.

Talks about the US stocks in his own portfolio, mostly large companies, in videos on his YouTube channels. He gives price targets as his estimate of what a company is worth today rather than a forecast with a date, and they are mostly above the current price.

## Fair value estimates

Each is the speaker's estimate of what the asset is worth, given without a deadline: recorded as said, not checked.

| Asset | Said | Price when said | Fair value | Difference | Estimate | Quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Alphabet](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/alphabet/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $279.84 | $350 | +25% | [#f8a2d](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-alphabet-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=507s) | “My price target and fair value of Google today is 350.” |
| [Amazon](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/amazon/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $240.35 | $350 | +46% | [#48513](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-amazon-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=461s) | “But for now, my price target or fair value assessment of Amazon is at 350.” |
| [ASML](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/asml/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,566 | $1,800 | +15% | [#f1d45](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-asml-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=883s) | “So, I took some off the table and I still wanted to keep a large position in ASML, and that's where we stand now. Now, when I look at this company, there is the mathematical valuation of it, which puts it around $1,500 per share, but then when I do my fair value assessment and I factor in the strength of the moat and how unique it is, I bump up my fair value a little bit more. So, my fair value, my price target is around $1,800 per share.” |
| [Costco](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/costco/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $1,012 | $800 | −21% | [#07bf5](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-costco-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=939s) | “When I look at Costco, I believe the stock is overvalued to some degree. So, right now it trades at $1,000 per share. I think it's worth around $800. That's my fair value.” |
| [DoorDash](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/doordash/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $178.99 | $250 | +40% | [#199a9](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-doordash-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1385s) | “For example, my fair value of DoorDash is 250.” |
| [Duolingo](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/duolingo/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $131.59 | $200 | +52% | [#80254](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-duolingo-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1258s) | “Duolingo currently trades at $135. I believe the fair value today is around $200, which is lower than my previous fair values on this company.” |
| [Mastercard](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/mastercard/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $638.01 | $700 | +9.7% | [#e82e6](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-mastercard-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=278s) | “But, this isn't a whole review of MasterCard. This is the valuation and what I believe is a fair value today. Right now, the stock trades at $6.59 and I believe the fair value is around $700 per share.” |
| [Meta Platforms](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/meta/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $614.99 | $850 | +38% | [#fe090](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-meta-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=638s) | “My price target or fair value assessment of Meta is around $850 today, which is around a 40% upside.” |
| [Microsoft](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/microsoft/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $521.91 | $550 | +5.4% | [#2685d](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-microsoft-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=785s) | “I put Microsoft's fair value, or my price target, at 550.” |
| [Moody's](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/moodys/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $493.91 | $500 | +1.2% | [#063fd](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-moodys-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1210s) | “With Moody's, this is another one that I believe is very close to its fair value. I have it at $500 per share.” |
| [Netflix](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/netflix/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $62.08 | $100 | +61% | [#eb0d4](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-netflix-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1035s) | “I've continued to add to Netflix, so I've raised my cost basis over time because I believe strongly that Netflix is mispriced. Currently, it trades at $62 per share. I believe the fair value of the company is around $100, which would be around a 60% increase in its current price.” |
| [S&P Global](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp-global/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $466.55 | $550 | +18% | [#1df9a](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-sp-global-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=729s) | “And I believe that the fair value of S&P Global is around 550.” |
| [Texas Roadhouse](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/texas-roadhouse/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $182.52 | $200 | +9.6% | [#0af83](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-texas-roadhouse-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1159s) | “Regardless, Texas Roadhouse is a fantastic company. It's trading at 186 today. There's concerns about beef pricing and commodity inflation, but I believe that Texas Roadhouse will navigate that better than any of its competitors, which creates that really strong traffic growth in the company. We have KPIs that track this over time and it shows that the weekly average sales for the company continue to rise. They're now making $177,000 in sales every week on average. When I was first buying this company, it was less than a 100K. So, really impressive growth there. I really like what I see with this company. But, in terms of my fair value, I believe it's worth today around $200 per share.” |
| [Uber](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/uber/) | Nov 2, 2026 | $65.25 | $90 | +38% | [#c9a32](https://predictionverifier.com/fair-values/joseph-carlson-uber-fair-value-2026-11/) · [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80cKV5-eGl4&t=1350s) | “My fair value of Uber is $90.” |

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