# PlanB's price predictions

Updated Sep 30, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/people/planb/

As of September 30, 2026, we track 7 price predictions PlanB made between 2021 and 2025. Two came true, four did not and one is open. All were about Bitcoin. All had deadlines at the end of a calendar year.

**PlanB** · Pseudonymous bitcoin analyst; author of the bitcoin stock-to-flow model
Links: [X](https://x.com/100trillionUSD)

PlanB is the pseudonym of an analyst described in the press as a Dutch institutional investor, who publishes bitcoin analysis on X as @100trillionUSD. In March 2019 he published the article "Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity" on Medium, which set out a stock-to-flow model of bitcoin's value, and in April 2020 an extension, the "Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model".

Gives price targets for bitcoin, most of them derived from his stock-to-flow models and tied to the four-year halving cycle, which crypto news outlets then report. The deadlines are a month-end, the end of a calendar year or a multi-year period, and the targets are for prices to rise.

Hit 2 · Missed 4 · Open 1

## Notable calls

The open, came-true and missed call with the largest move from the price when said. A selection, not a rating.

**Boldest open call**

- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $300,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-300k-by-2026/) · Open · $114,216 → $300,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #daa14
  “Now, 60% of people think that Bitcoin will not reach $300,000 by the end of 2026 – that’s this line, one and a half years from now. So, by the end of next year, this is the $300,000 point. Sixty percent of people think we’re not going to get there. In my opinion, we will.”

**Boldest call that came true**

- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-100k-by-2025/) · Hit · $19,935 → $100,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0a9a4
  “My two cents on Bitcoin price: – November 2022 low of $15,500 was the bottom. – BTC has crossed Short Term Holder (STH) and will rise into 2024 halving and subsequent 2025 bull market. Several on-chain signals confirm STH signal. – 2024 halving will be > $32,000 – 2025 bull market > $100,000”

**Boldest call that didn't come true**

- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $300,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-300k-by-2025/) · Missed · $63,514 → $300,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0b4f5
  “Bitcoin top greater than $300,000 in 2025.”

## All predictions

- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $300,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-300k-by-2026/) · Open · $114,216 → $300,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #daa14
  “Now, 60% of people think that Bitcoin will not reach $300,000 by the end of 2026 – that’s this line, one and a half years from now. So, by the end of next year, this is the $300,000 point. Sixty percent of people think we’re not going to get there. In my opinion, we will.”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $270,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-270k-by-2025/) · Missed · $97,677 → $270,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #65487
  “So that’s the absolute minimum Bitcoin price that I expect in 2025: $270,000.”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $300,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-300k-by-2025/) · Missed · $63,514 → $300,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0b4f5
  “Bitcoin top greater than $300,000 in 2025.”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-100k-by-2024/) · Hit · $44,221 → $100,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #a0850
  “My forward guidance for 2024 has not changed from Oct 6, 2022 when Bitcoin was 20k (see below): – rise into April 2024 halving – halving around S2F model value 55k (range 30k-100k) – pump after halving – we will hit 100k in 2024”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-100k-by-2025/) · Hit · $19,935 → $100,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0a9a4
  “My two cents on Bitcoin price: – November 2022 low of $15,500 was the bottom. – BTC has crossed Short Term Holder (STH) and will rise into 2024 halving and subsequent 2025 bull market. Several on-chain signals confirm STH signal. – 2024 halving will be > $32,000 – 2025 bull market > $100,000”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 by Dec 31, 2023](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-100k-by-2023/) · Missed · $40,537 → $100,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2023 · #c7378
  “Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100k in 2023.”
- [PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 by Dec 31, 2021](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/planb-bitcoin-100k-by-2021/) · Missed · $63,309 → $100,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2021 · #3bee8
  “As you know S2F model predicts $100K average for this halving period (and based on floor model we reach $100K this yr).”