# Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028

Updated Sep 28, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-1m-by-2028/

As of September 28, 2026, Arthur Hayes' prediction that Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2028 is open. Arthur Hayes made the call on CoinDesk on May 8, 2025, when Bitcoin was at $97,058. The target calls for a 930% rise in three years and eight months.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Open |
| Person | [Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) |
| Asset | [Bitcoin (BTC)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/bitcoin/) |
| Outlet | CoinDesk |
| Said on | May 8, 2025 |
| Quote | “That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.” |
| Price when said → target | $97,058 → $1,000,000 |
| Change | +930% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2028 |
| Source | [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/08/arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-will-hit-usd1m-by-2028-as-u-s-china-craft-hollow-trade-deal) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260315162116/https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/08/arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-will-hit-usd1m-by-2028-as-u-s-china-craft-hollow-trade-deal) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#touch) |
| Public ID | #e662b |

## What was said

[Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) · Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom · 8 predictions · 2 hit · 3 missed · 3 open

CoinDesk, May 8, 2025 · [Source](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/08/arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-will-hit-usd1m-by-2028-as-u-s-china-craft-hollow-trade-deal) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260315162116/https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/08/arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-will-hit-usd1m-by-2028-as-u-s-china-craft-hollow-trade-deal)

> That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.

Hayes argued that the Treasury Department, not the Federal Reserve, drives global liquidity, pointing to Treasury buybacks and auction strategies used to manage a growing U.S. debt load. He tied the forecast to that liquidity combined with America's inability to rein in spending. He also expected U.S.-China trade diplomacy to lead toward capital controls and continued Chinese buying of U.S. assets, which he said means more money in the system for bitcoin to absorb.

## How we checked this

The prediction comes true if any daily close from May 8, 2025 to Dec 31, 2028, inclusive, is at or above $1,000,000. Prices are daily closes in UTC, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: $97,058 (May 7, 2025) · [price data](https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD)

[How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/)

## More from Arthur Hayes

- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2026/) · Open · $1,859 → $5,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #7ab1d
  “Hayes also forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin at or above $500,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-500k-by-2026/) · Open · $76,349 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #a5999
  “Adding to the bullish sentiment, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of $500,000 and a $200 target for HYPE, in an exclusive interview with Coinpedia, while reaffirming that the majority of his personal wealth remains stored in Bitcoin.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum at or above $10,000 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-10k-by-2025/) · Missed · $3,630 → $10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #c6798
  “My year-end targets: Bitcoin = $250,000. Ether = $10,000.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-250k-by-2025/) · Missed · $82,534 → $250,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0a962
  “I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $70,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-70k-by-2024/) · Hit · $28,070 → $70,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #ba1d4
  “I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026.”

## Other Bitcoin predictions

- [Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin to $400,000 by Dec 31, 2030](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/brian-armstrong-bitcoin-400k-by-2030/) · Open · $78,284 → $400,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2030 · #bcf13
  “Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong still expects Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030, he told CNBC Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, calling it a "reasonable target" even as BTC currently trades around $77,000.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Jul 4, 2027](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-july-2027/) · Open · $62,520 → $250,000 · Deadline Jul 4, 2027 · #27561
  ““It just wasn’t me. I haven’t touched it. Arkham has it wrong,” Draper told Cointelegraph, adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Oct 14, 2027](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-october-2027/) · Open · $74,446 → $250,000 · Deadline Oct 14, 2027 · #60478
  “I have reason to believe that bitcoin will reach $250K in 18 months … eventually I expect the number to be higher as bitcoin rises and the dollar falls to inflationary pressures.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-2026/) · Open · $93,722 → $250,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #52073
  “2026 será grande. Bitcoin se vuelve convencional. Mi predicción de $250K finalmente alcanzada.”
- [Geoff Kendrick: Bitcoin to $500,000 by Dec 31, 2030](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-bitcoin-500k-by-2030/) · Open · $90,654 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2030 · #bbcaf
  “Geoff Kendrick, the firm's global head of digital assets research, said he now expects the $500,000 level to be met in 2030, two years later than previously forecast.”

## More on this prediction

- [Arthur Hayes' price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/)
- [Bitcoin price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/bitcoin/)

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