# Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2025

Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-250k-by-2025/

Arthur Hayes' prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025 did not come true. Bitcoin's best close before the deadline was $124,720 on October 6, 2025, 50% below the target. Arthur Hayes made the call on Cointelegraph on April 1, 2025, when Bitcoin was at $82,534. The target needed a 203% rise in nine months.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Missed |
| Person | [Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) |
| Asset | [Bitcoin (BTC)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/bitcoin/) |
| Outlet | Cointelegraph |
| Said on | Apr 1, 2025 |
| Quote | “I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars” |
| Price when said → target | $82,534 → $250,000 |
| Change | +203% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Deciding close | Best close before the deadline: $124,720 (Oct 6, 2025) |
| Source | [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-250k-fed-qe-arthur-hayes) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20251127105600/https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-250k-fed-qe-arthur-hayes) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#touch) |
| Public ID | #0a962 |

## What was said

[Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) · Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom · 8 predictions · 2 hit · 3 missed · 3 open

Cointelegraph, Apr 1, 2025 · [Source](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-250k-fed-qe-arthur-hayes) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20251127105600/https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-250k-fed-qe-arthur-hayes)

> I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars

Hayes argued that Bitcoin trades on market expectations for the future supply of fiat money. He pointed to the Fed cutting its Treasury runoff cap and possibly reinvesting MBS principal into Treasurys, which he called treasury QE, and said the Fed will flood the market with dollars. He added that this would let China's central bank stop tightening to defend the dollar-yuan rate, increasing the quantity of yuan.

## How we checked this

The prediction comes true if any daily close from Apr 1, 2025 to Dec 31, 2025, inclusive, is at or above $250,000. Prices are daily closes in UTC, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: $82,534 (Mar 31, 2025) · [price data](https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD)
- Deciding close: $124,720 (Oct 6, 2025) · [price data](https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD)

[How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/)

## More from Arthur Hayes

- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2026/) · Open · $1,859 → $5,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #7ab1d
  “Hayes also forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin at or above $500,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-500k-by-2026/) · Open · $76,349 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #a5999
  “Adding to the bullish sentiment, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of $500,000 and a $200 target for HYPE, in an exclusive interview with Coinpedia, while reaffirming that the majority of his personal wealth remains stored in Bitcoin.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum at or above $10,000 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-10k-by-2025/) · Missed · $3,630 → $10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #c6798
  “My year-end targets: Bitcoin = $250,000. Ether = $10,000.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-1m-by-2028/) · Open · $97,058 → $1,000,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2028 · #e662b
  “That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $70,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-70k-by-2024/) · Hit · $28,070 → $70,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #ba1d4
  “I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026.”

## Other Bitcoin predictions

- [Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin to $400,000 by Dec 31, 2030](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/brian-armstrong-bitcoin-400k-by-2030/) · Open · $78,284 → $400,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2030 · #bcf13
  “Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong still expects Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030, he told CNBC Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, calling it a "reasonable target" even as BTC currently trades around $77,000.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Jul 4, 2027](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-july-2027/) · Open · $62,520 → $250,000 · Deadline Jul 4, 2027 · #27561
  ““It just wasn’t me. I haven’t touched it. Arkham has it wrong,” Draper told Cointelegraph, adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Oct 14, 2027](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-october-2027/) · Open · $74,446 → $250,000 · Deadline Oct 14, 2027 · #60478
  “I have reason to believe that bitcoin will reach $250K in 18 months … eventually I expect the number to be higher as bitcoin rises and the dollar falls to inflationary pressures.”
- [Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tim-draper-bitcoin-250k-by-2026/) · Open · $93,722 → $250,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #52073
  “2026 será grande. Bitcoin se vuelve convencional. Mi predicción de $250K finalmente alcanzada.”
- [Geoff Kendrick: Bitcoin to $500,000 by Dec 31, 2030](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-bitcoin-500k-by-2030/) · Open · $90,654 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2030 · #bbcaf
  “Geoff Kendrick, the firm's global head of digital assets research, said he now expects the $500,000 level to be met in 2030, two years later than previously forecast.”

## More on this prediction

- [Arthur Hayes' price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/)
- [Bitcoin price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/bitcoin/)
- [Bitcoin price predictions for 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/bitcoin/2025/)
- [2025 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/years/2025/)

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