# Arthur Hayes: Ethereum at or above $10,000 on Dec 31, 2025

Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-10k-by-2025/

Arthur Hayes' prediction that Ethereum would be at or above $10,000 on December 31, 2025 did not come true. The close on the deadline decided this call: Ethereum closed at $2,967 on December 31, 2025, the deadline, 70% below the target. Arthur Hayes made the call on The Daily Hodl on July 24, 2025, when Ethereum was at $3,630. The target needed a 175% rise in five months.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Missed |
| Person | [Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) |
| Asset | [Ethereum (ETH)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/ethereum/) |
| Outlet | The Daily Hodl |
| Said on | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Quote | “My year-end targets: Bitcoin = $250,000. Ether = $10,000.” |
| Price when said → target | $3,630 → $10,000 |
| Change | +175% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Deciding close | Close on the deadline: $2,967 (Dec 31, 2025) |
| Source | [The Daily Hodl](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/24/arthur-hayes-reveals-year-end-price-targets-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum-predicts-massive-unexpected-eth-bull-run/) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250811020745/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/24/arthur-hayes-reveals-year-end-price-targets-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum-predicts-massive-unexpected-eth-bull-run/) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#at-deadline) |
| Public ID | #c6798 |

## What was said

[Arthur Hayes](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/) · Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom · 8 predictions · 2 hit · 3 missed · 3 open

The Daily Hodl, Jul 24, 2025 · [Source](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/24/arthur-hayes-reveals-year-end-price-targets-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum-predicts-massive-unexpected-eth-bull-run/) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250811020745/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/24/arthur-hayes-reveals-year-end-price-targets-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum-predicts-massive-unexpected-eth-bull-run/)

> My year-end targets: Bitcoin = $250,000. Ether = $10,000.

Hayes said Ether was set for a strong rally, in part because of growing adoption by traditional finance and Western institutional investors. He said his family office, Maelstrom, was fully invested and heavily positioned in Ether and DeFi.

## How we checked this

The close of the last trading day on or before Dec 31, 2025 decides: the prediction comes true if that close is at or above $10,000. Prices are daily closes in UTC, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: $3,630 (Jul 23, 2025) · [price data](https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/ETH-USD)
- Deciding close: $2,967 (Dec 31, 2025) · [price data](https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/ETH-USD)

[How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/)

## More from Arthur Hayes

- [Arthur Hayes: Ethereum to $5,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-ethereum-5k-by-2026/) · Open · $1,859 → $5,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #7ab1d
  “Hayes also forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin at or above $500,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-500k-by-2026/) · Open · $76,349 → $500,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #a5999
  “Adding to the bullish sentiment, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of $500,000 and a $200 target for HYPE, in an exclusive interview with Coinpedia, while reaffirming that the majority of his personal wealth remains stored in Bitcoin.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-1m-by-2028/) · Open · $97,058 → $1,000,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2028 · #e662b
  “That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-250k-by-2025/) · Missed · $82,534 → $250,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #0a962
  “I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars”
- [Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $70,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-70k-by-2024/) · Hit · $28,070 → $70,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #ba1d4
  “I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026.”

## Other Ethereum predictions

- [Geoff Kendrick: Ethereum at or above $7,500 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-ethereum-7500-by-2025/) · Missed · $4,590 → $7,500 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #ac970
  “We now see ETH at USD 7,500 by end-2025 (USD 4,000 prior) and USD 25,000 by end-2028 (USD 7,500)”
- [Geoff Kendrick: Ethereum at or above $25,000 on Dec 31, 2028](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-ethereum-25k-by-2028/) · Open · $4,590 → $25,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2028 · #a449a
  “We now see ETH at USD 7,500 by end-2025 (USD 4,000 prior) and USD 25,000 by end-2028 (USD 7,500)”
- [Geoff Kendrick: Ethereum to $4,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-ethereum-4k-by-2025/) · Hit · $1,472 → $4,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #62fcd
  “In related forecasts, Kendrick downgraded Ethereum’s 2025 price target from $10,000 to $4,000 while projecting that Avalanche (AVAX) will hit $250 by 2029.”
- [Geoff Kendrick: Ethereum to $4,000 by Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/geoff-kendrick-ethereum-4k-by-2024/) · Hit · $1,568 → $4,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #9d3de
  “In the shorter term, said Kendrick, the bitcoin [BTC] halving in April 2024 "should help lift all boats," and he sees ether hitting $4,000 by the end of next year.”

## More on this prediction

- [Arthur Hayes' price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/arthur-hayes/)
- [Ethereum price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/ethereum/)
- [Ethereum price predictions for 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/ethereum/2025/)
- [2025 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/years/2025/)

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