# Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 6,500 on Dec 31, 2025

Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-6500-by-2025/

Ed Yardeni's prediction that S&P 500 would be at or above 6,500 on December 31, 2025 came true. The close on the deadline decided this call: S&P 500 closed at 6,846 on December 31, 2025, the deadline. Ed Yardeni made the call on CNBC on May 13, 2025, when S&P 500 was at 5,844. The target needed an 11% rise in eight months.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Hit |
| Person | [Ed Yardeni](https://predictionverifier.com/people/ed-yardeni/) |
| Asset | [S&P 500 (SPX)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/) |
| Outlet | CNBC |
| Said on | May 13, 2025 |
| Quote | “The president of Yardeni Research raised his year-end target for the S & P 500 back up to 6,500 from 6,000.” |
| Price when said → target | 5,844 → 6,500 |
| Change | +11% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Deciding close | Close on the deadline: 6,846 (Dec 31, 2025) |
| Source | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/ed-yardeni-cuts-recession-odds-and-raises-sp-500-target-back-up-to-6500-on-trumps-tariff-rollback.html) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260226224134/https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/ed-yardeni-cuts-recession-odds-and-raises-sp-500-target-back-up-to-6500-on-trumps-tariff-rollback.html) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#at-deadline) |
| Public ID | #30b4c |

## What was said

[Ed Yardeni](https://predictionverifier.com/people/ed-yardeni/) · President and Chief Investment Strategist, Yardeni Research · 9 predictions · 6 hit · 1 missed · 2 open

CNBC, May 13, 2025 · [Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/ed-yardeni-cuts-recession-odds-and-raises-sp-500-target-back-up-to-6500-on-trumps-tariff-rollback.html) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260226224134/https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/ed-yardeni-cuts-recession-odds-and-raises-sp-500-target-back-up-to-6500-on-trumps-tariff-rollback.html)

> The president of Yardeni Research raised his year-end target for the S & P 500 back up to 6,500 from 6,000.

Yardeni raised the target after the U.S. and China reached a temporary trade truce and the S&P 500 rallied, noting the index was only 5.9% below its Feb. 19 record and above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. He said the rally made the negative wealth effect on consumers from the tariff turmoil probably insignificant. He also pointed to rising customs duties boosting federal tax receipts, signs of consumer strength and ongoing capital spending.

## How we checked this

The close of the last trading day on or before Dec 31, 2025 decides: the prediction comes true if that close is at or above 6,500. Prices are daily closes, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: 5,844 (May 12, 2025) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)
- Deciding close: 6,846 (Dec 31, 2025) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)

[How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/)

## More from Ed Yardeni

- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 8,250 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-8250-by-2026/) · Open · 7,580 → 8,250 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #3571d
  “In a new CNBC interview, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni says he is raising his year-end target for the stock market index to 8,250.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 10,000 by Dec 31, 2029](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-10k-by-2029/) · Open · 7,399 → 10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2029 · #38eac
  “Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 7,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-7000-by-2025/) · Missed · 6,729 → 7,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #f0d42
  “Yardeni argues that corporate earnings have been prolific enough to keep the market afloat, and he predicts that the S&P 500 is about to rally once again, crossing 7,000 by the end of the year.”
- [Ed Yardeni: Gold to $5,000 by Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-gold-5k-by-2026/) · Hit · $3,886 → $5,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #6976a
  “We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 5,800 on Dec 31, 2024](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-5800-by-2024/) · Hit · 5,577 → 5,800 · Deadline Dec 31, 2024 · #ee7fe
  “Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research late Wednesday hiked his year-end target for the S & P 500 to 5,800 from 5,400.”

## Other S&P 500 predictions

- [Tom Lee: S&P 500 at or above 8,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tom-lee-sp500-8000-by-2026/) · Open · 7,365 → 8,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #266cb
  “We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”
- [Mike Wilson: S&P 500 to 3,900 by Dec 31, 2023](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-3900-by-2023/) · Missed · 4,328 → 3,900 · Deadline Dec 31, 2023 · #e247b
  “Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023.”
- [Tom Lee: S&P 500 at or above 3,125 on Dec 31, 2019](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tom-lee-sp500-3125-by-2019/) · Hit · 2,918 → 3,125 · Deadline Dec 31, 2019 · #379a0
  “In a note to clients, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors raised his S&P 500 year-end target to 3,125 from 2,925, which represents a 7% gain from Thursday's 2,917 close.”
- [Tom Lee: S&P 500 to 2,835 by Dec 31, 2019](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tom-lee-sp500-2835-by-2019/) · Hit · 2,597 → 2,835 · Deadline Dec 31, 2019 · #b4a6b
  “In his latest investor note released Friday morning, Lee predicted the S&P 500 would hit 2,835 by the end of the year.”
- [Mike Wilson: S&P 500 at or above 2,750 on Dec 31, 2019](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-2750-by-2019/) · Hit · 2,633 → 2,750 · Deadline Dec 31, 2019 · #c4f85
  “Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that he "sees more of the same" stagnant performance from the major indexes in 2019 and forecasts the S&P 500 finishes next year at 2,750, just 3 percent above current levels.”

## More on this prediction

- [Ed Yardeni's price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/ed-yardeni/)
- [S&P 500 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/)
- [2025 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/years/2025/)

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