# Mike Wilson: S&P 500 at or above 2,750 on Dec 31, 2019

Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-2750-by-2019/

Mike Wilson's prediction that S&P 500 would be at or above 2,750 on December 31, 2019 came true. The close on the deadline decided this call: S&P 500 closed at 3,231 on December 31, 2019, the deadline. Mike Wilson made the call in a research note on November 26, 2018, when S&P 500 was at 2,633. The target needed a 4.5% rise in one year and one month.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Hit |
| Person | [Mike Wilson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/) |
| Asset | [S&P 500 (SPX)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/) |
| Outlet | Research note |
| Said on | Nov 26, 2018 |
| Quote | “Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that he "sees more of the same" stagnant performance from the major indexes in 2019 and forecasts the S&P 500 finishes next year at 2,750, just 3 percent above current levels.” |
| Price when said → target | 2,633 → 2,750 |
| Change | +4.5% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2019 |
| Deciding close | Close on the deadline: 3,231 (Dec 31, 2019) |
| Source | [Research note](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-sell-off-sees-dismal-2019.html) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250321193426/https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-sell-off-sees-dismal-2019.html) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#at-deadline) |
| Public ID | #c4f85 |

## What was said

[Mike Wilson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/) · Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley · 2 predictions · 1 hit · 1 missed

Research note, Nov 26, 2018 · [Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-sell-off-sees-dismal-2019.html) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250321193426/https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-sell-off-sees-dismal-2019.html)

> Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that he "sees more of the same" stagnant performance from the major indexes in 2019 and forecasts the S&P 500 finishes next year at 2,750, just 3 percent above current levels.

Wilson expected another range-bound year driven by disappointing earnings and a Fed that pauses. He wrote that decelerating GDP growth, as the effect of tax cuts wears off and interest rates rise, would weigh on corporate sales growth, and he saw a greater than 50 percent chance of a modest earnings recession in 2019. He also pointed to tighter financial conditions imposed by the Federal Reserve.

## How we checked this

The close of the last trading day on or before Dec 31, 2019 decides: the prediction comes true if that close is at or above 2,750. Prices are daily closes, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: 2,633 (Nov 23, 2018) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)
- Deciding close: 3,231 (Dec 31, 2019) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)

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## More from Mike Wilson

- [Mike Wilson: S&P 500 to 3,900 by Dec 31, 2023](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-3900-by-2023/) · Missed · 4,328 → 3,900 · Deadline Dec 31, 2023 · #e247b
  “Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023.”

## Other S&P 500 predictions

- [Tom Lee: S&P 500 at or above 8,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tom-lee-sp500-8000-by-2026/) · Open · 7,365 → 8,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #266cb
  “We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 8,250 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-8250-by-2026/) · Open · 7,580 → 8,250 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #3571d
  “In a new CNBC interview, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni says he is raising his year-end target for the stock market index to 8,250.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 10,000 by Dec 31, 2029](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-10k-by-2029/) · Open · 7,399 → 10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2029 · #38eac
  “Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 7,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-7000-by-2025/) · Missed · 6,729 → 7,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #f0d42
  “Yardeni argues that corporate earnings have been prolific enough to keep the market afloat, and he predicts that the S&P 500 is about to rally once again, crossing 7,000 by the end of the year.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 6,500 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-6500-by-2025/) · Hit · 5,844 → 6,500 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #30b4c
  “The president of Yardeni Research raised his year-end target for the S & P 500 back up to 6,500 from 6,000.”

## More on this prediction

- [Mike Wilson's price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/)
- [S&P 500 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/)
- [S&P 500 price predictions for 2019](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/2019/)

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