# Mike Wilson: S&P 500 to 3,900 by Dec 31, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Web page: https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-3900-by-2023/

Mike Wilson's prediction that S&P 500 would fall to 3,900 by December 31, 2023 did not come true. S&P 500's lowest close before the deadline was 4,117 on October 27, 2023, 5.6% above the target. Mike Wilson made the call on CNBC on October 16, 2023, when S&P 500 was at 4,328. The target needed a 9.9% fall in two months.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | Missed |
| Person | [Mike Wilson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/) |
| Asset | [S&P 500 (SPX)](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/) |
| Outlet | CNBC |
| Said on | Oct 16, 2023 |
| Quote | “Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023.” |
| Price when said → target | 4,328 → 3,900 |
| Change | −9.9% from the price when said |
| Deadline | Dec 31, 2023 |
| Deciding close | Lowest close before the deadline: 4,117 (Oct 27, 2023) |
| Source | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/morgan-stanley-says-the-average-stock-is-breaking-down-sp-500-to-fall-to-3900-by-year-end-.html) |
| Archive | [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260927083603/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/morgan-stanley-says-the-average-stock-is-breaking-down-sp-500-to-fall-to-3900-by-year-end-.html) |
| How we check | [How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/#touch) |
| Public ID | #e247b |

## What was said

[Mike Wilson](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/) · Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley · 2 predictions · 1 hit · 1 missed

CNBC, Oct 16, 2023 · [Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/morgan-stanley-says-the-average-stock-is-breaking-down-sp-500-to-fall-to-3900-by-year-end-.html) · [Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20260927083603/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/morgan-stanley-says-the-average-stock-is-breaking-down-sp-500-to-fall-to-3900-by-year-end-.html)

> Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023.

Wilson said higher rates and slower growth were pressuring equities and that only 39% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 200-day moving average, with even mega-cap leadership losing momentum. He wrote that the average stock had already broken down technically and that most sectors showed weakening breadth. He cited cautious factor leadership, a recent decline in earnings revisions and fading consumer confidence as reducing the odds of a fourth-quarter rally.

## How we checked this

The prediction comes true if any daily close from Oct 16, 2023 to Dec 31, 2023, inclusive, is at or below 3,900. Prices are daily closes, not intraday highs.

- Price when said: 4,328 (Oct 13, 2023) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)
- Deciding close: 4,117 (Oct 27, 2023) · [price data](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)

[How we check predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/how-we-check-predictions/)

## More from Mike Wilson

- [Mike Wilson: S&P 500 at or above 2,750 on Dec 31, 2019](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/mike-wilson-sp500-2750-by-2019/) · Hit · 2,633 → 2,750 · Deadline Dec 31, 2019 · #c4f85
  “Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that he "sees more of the same" stagnant performance from the major indexes in 2019 and forecasts the S&P 500 finishes next year at 2,750, just 3 percent above current levels.”

## Other S&P 500 predictions

- [Tom Lee: S&P 500 at or above 8,000 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/tom-lee-sp500-8000-by-2026/) · Open · 7,365 → 8,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #266cb
  “We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 8,250 on Dec 31, 2026](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-8250-by-2026/) · Open · 7,580 → 8,250 · Deadline Dec 31, 2026 · #3571d
  “In a new CNBC interview, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni says he is raising his year-end target for the stock market index to 8,250.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 10,000 by Dec 31, 2029](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-10k-by-2029/) · Open · 7,399 → 10,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2029 · #38eac
  “Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 to 7,000 by Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-7000-by-2025/) · Missed · 6,729 → 7,000 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #f0d42
  “Yardeni argues that corporate earnings have been prolific enough to keep the market afloat, and he predicts that the S&P 500 is about to rally once again, crossing 7,000 by the end of the year.”
- [Ed Yardeni: S&P 500 at or above 6,500 on Dec 31, 2025](https://predictionverifier.com/predictions/ed-yardeni-sp500-6500-by-2025/) · Hit · 5,844 → 6,500 · Deadline Dec 31, 2025 · #30b4c
  “The president of Yardeni Research raised his year-end target for the S & P 500 back up to 6,500 from 6,000.”

## More on this prediction

- [Mike Wilson's price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/people/mike-wilson/)
- [S&P 500 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/assets/sp500/)
- [2023 price predictions](https://predictionverifier.com/years/2023/)

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