How we check predictions
Version 1.1, in effect since Changelog
PredictionVerifier records public price predictions made by named people and checks each one against historical closing prices. These are the rules we apply; when one changes, the version number goes up and the change is listed in the Changelog.
What we publish
We publish a statement only when it contains all three of these:
- An asset we cover: a cryptocurrency, a US stock or ETF, a major US index (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average), gold or silver.
- A target: a specific price (“$300”) or a specific change (“will fall 50%”).
- A deadline: an explicit one (“by the end of 2031”, “within 12 months”). A strategist’s year-end target counts as a deadline of December 31 of that year.
We do not publish statements without a deadline, vague ones (“a crash is coming”), hedged or conditional ones, or ones we cannot confirm in the original source. A quote with any of these words or phrases counts as hedged: “could”, “might”, “may”, “maybe”, “perhaps”, “possibly”, “possible”, “potentially”, “conceivably”, “if”, “unless”, “assuming”, “provided that”, “depending on”, “i wouldn't be surprised”, “wouldn't be surprised”, “wouldn't rule out”, “can't rule out”, “cannot rule out”, “not out of the question”, “there's a chance”, “a chance”, “best case”, “best-case”, “bull case”, “bull-case”, “bear case”, “bear-case”, “worst case”, “worst-case”, “scenario”.
Scenarios. When a person gives several scenarios, we record the one they call their base case as the target, and show the others on the card the way analysts do, from the lowest price to the highest: bear case, base case, bull case (a “worst case” is the bear case, a “best case” the bull case). Only the base case is checked. Best and worst cases (or bull and bear cases) given without a base case are a range with no single target, so we do not publish them, and we never pick one of the numbers for the person.
We record everything we find, not only the misses. Once a person is on the site, every prediction of theirs that we find and that meets these rules is recorded, whatever its outcome.
Examples
Invented statements, not quotes from anyone. “XYZ” stands for any US-listed stock.
| Statement | Published? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| “XYZ will reach $300 a share by the end of 2031.” | Yes | Asset, target and deadline. |
| “I expect the S&P 500 to fall 30% within 12 months.” | Yes | A percentage target, converted to a price. |
| “Gold will end 2031 above $6,000 an ounce.” | Yes | A value on a date: only the close at the deadline counts. |
| “XYZ is going to $300.” | No | No deadline. |
| “XYZ could hit $300 by 2031.” | No | Hedged: “could”. |
| “Our base case is $300 by the end of 2031, with a bull case of $400 and a bear case of $150.” | Yes | The target is the base case, $300; the card also shows Bear $150 and Bull $400. |
| “By 2031, XYZ is at $400 in the best case and $150 in the worst.” | No | Two scenarios and no base case: no single target. |
| “A friend of mine thinks XYZ hits $300 by 2031.” | No | Someone else’s view. |
How we read dates and targets
| What was said | How we record it |
|---|---|
| “By 2031”, “by the end of 2031”, “year-end 2031” | December 31, 2031, inclusive |
| “By March 2031”, “in Q2 2031” | The last day of that month or quarter |
| “In N months” or “in N years” | The statement date plus N months or years |
| A percentage target | The price when said × (1 ± N%) |
| The price when said | The last close before the statement date |
| Stock splits | Prices and targets are split-adjusted; the quote keeps the words as spoken |
How we decide the outcome
We use daily closing prices only; intraday highs and lows do not count. Crypto uses the daily close in UTC, gold and silver the spot price in US dollars per troy ounce, and stocks, ETFs and indexes the official close on each NYSE trading day. Once a target is reached, the outcome is fixed and later prices do not change it.
Each card is checked in one of two ways; its “How we check” link leads to the rule that applies.
Any close before the deadline
The default, for a price that will be reached by a date (“will hit $300 by 2031”).
- Hit if at least one close from the statement date to the deadline reached the target. The deciding price is the first such close.
- Missed if the deadline passed without that. The deciding price is the close nearest to the target during the period.
Close on the deadline
For a value on a date (“will end 2031 above $6,000”, a year-end target). Only the close on the last trading day on or before the deadline counts.
When a person revises a call
A new target or a new deadline for the same asset is a new card, linked to the earlier one (“Revised later” and “Earlier call”). A revision does not cancel the earlier call: each card is checked against its own target and deadline, and each counts toward the person’s totals. The same target and deadline said again is one card.
A person’s page shows how many of their calls they revised before the outcome was decided.
Statuses
| Status | When |
|---|---|
| Open | The deadline has not arrived and the target has not been reached. |
| Hit | The target was reached. |
| Missed | The deadline passed and the target was not reached. |
| Void | Cancelled, with the reason on the card. |
Void
A card is Void when it can no longer be checked fairly: the asset stopped trading before the deadline, or the full source shows the statement was a hypothetical, a joke or someone else’s view. A void card stays on the site with its quote struck through and counts toward neither Hit nor Missed.
Why a result can arrive late
Every outcome is checked after the deadline, so a card can stay Open for a while after its deadline. The result does not depend on when we checked it. Until then the card says “Deadline passed · result pending”.
Prices
Every price on the site is a historical daily close from a public data provider, with its date and a link to its source; we compare two providers, and the editor approves every price. A card has at most two: the price when said and the deciding price.
Who does what
AI tools search for predictions and do the first reading. Every quote is taken word for word from a saved copy of the original text and is checked against an archived copy of the page. A human editor opens the original source, confirms that the person said these words as a prediction, and approves every card. Prices and outcomes come from historical daily closes: AI tools look them up in two public data providers and apply the rules on this page, and the editor approves every price and outcome before it is published. Short texts such as a card’s context note are drafted by AI in a neutral tone and approved with the card.
Where we search
We search the web under each person’s name and the other names they are known by, in news articles and published interviews in English, and for some people in their own published essays. Posts on X, videos and podcasts are used only when a news article quotes the words, with one exception: a video on the person’s own YouTube channel, where we quote the platform’s transcript, link to the moment it was said and check the numbers by listening to it. The search goes back to the year the person’s first dated price calls appeared in the press.
Limitations
- Coverage is not complete. A prediction made where we did not search, or never reported, is missing. Statements deleted before anyone archived them cannot be confirmed.
- Closing prices differ slightly between data providers, especially for crypto. When they disagree near a target, the editor decides.
- We count outcomes; we do not rank people. The counters on a person’s page are a record, not a measure of skill.
- This is not investment advice. Past predictions do not indicate future results.
Corrections
If you think a card is wrong, use “Report an error” on the card or see About. Corrections are made in the card itself, and its “Updated” date changes.
Changelog
- Version 1.1 — September 30, 2026. A base case given among several scenarios is now recorded as the person’s prediction; scenarios without a base case are still not published. Videos on a person’s own YouTube channel are now used as sources. Prices and outcomes are now looked up by AI tools in two data providers and approved by the editor, instead of being entered by hand.
- Version 1.0 — September 28, 2026. First published rules.