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PredictionVerifier

All recorded fair value estimates

What a named person says an asset is worth, given without a deadline: recorded as said, not checked

Each row is one fair value estimate by a named person: the asset, the price when it was said and the value the person gave. An estimate has no date by which the price should get there, so it is never marked Hit or Missed; the difference shows how far the value was from the close of the day before. Every row links to a page with the exact quote and the original source.

Updated

All recorded fair value estimates
PersonSaidPrice when said → Fair value
Joseph CarlsonAlphabetPrice when said: $279.84 Fair value: $350 (+25%)
Joseph CarlsonAmazonPrice when said: $240.35 Fair value: $350 (+46%)
Joseph CarlsonASMLPrice when said: $1,566 Fair value: $1,800 (+15%)
Joseph CarlsonCostcoPrice when said: $1,012 Fair value: $800 (−21%)
Joseph CarlsonDoorDashPrice when said: $178.99 Fair value: $250 (+40%)
Joseph CarlsonDuolingoPrice when said: $131.59 Fair value: $200 (+52%)
Joseph CarlsonMastercardPrice when said: $638.01 Fair value: $700 (+9.7%)
Joseph CarlsonMeta PlatformsPrice when said: $614.99 Fair value: $850 (+38%)
Joseph CarlsonMicrosoftPrice when said: $521.91 Fair value: $550 (+5.4%)
Joseph CarlsonMoody'sPrice when said: $493.91 Fair value: $500 (+1.2%)
Joseph CarlsonNetflixPrice when said: $62.08 Fair value: $100 (+61%)
Joseph CarlsonS&P GlobalPrice when said: $466.55 Fair value: $550 (+18%)
Joseph CarlsonTexas RoadhousePrice when said: $182.52 Fair value: $200 (+9.6%)
Joseph CarlsonUberPrice when said: $65.25 Fair value: $90 (+38%)

Why fair value estimates are not checked