No deadline · not checked
- Price when said
- $62.08 closeprice data
- Fair value
- $100+61%
Joseph Carlson's $100 fair value for Netflix
On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of Netflix at $100 per share on YouTube. Netflix closed at $62.08 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 61% above the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.
Updated
What was said
Joseph Carlson
Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 17:15Source
14 fair value estimates
I've continued to add to Netflix, so I've raised my cost basis over time because I believe strongly that Netflix is mispriced. Currently, it trades at $62 per share. I believe the fair value of the company is around $100, which would be around a 60% increase in its current price.
Carlson noted that Netflix traded at $107 in April and $115 a year ago, and said what changed was the narrative. He said a couple of quarters that restore investor confidence could move its forward P/E from 17 back to 25.
The estimate
A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.
Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson 13
| Asset | Said | Price when said → Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | Price when said: $279.84 Fair value: $350 (+25%) | |
| Amazon | Price when said: $240.35 Fair value: $350 (+46%) | |
| ASML | Price when said: $1,566 Fair value: $1,800 (+15%) | |
| Costco | Price when said: $1,012 Fair value: $800 (−21%) | |
| DoorDash | Price when said: $178.99 Fair value: $250 (+40%) | |
| Duolingo | Price when said: $131.59 Fair value: $200 (+52%) | |
| Mastercard | Price when said: $638.01 Fair value: $700 (+9.7%) | |
| Meta Platforms | Price when said: $614.99 Fair value: $850 (+38%) | |
| Microsoft | Price when said: $521.91 Fair value: $550 (+5.4%) | |
| Moody's | Price when said: $493.91 Fair value: $500 (+1.2%) | |
| S&P Global | Price when said: $466.55 Fair value: $550 (+18%) | |
| Texas Roadhouse | Price when said: $182.52 Fair value: $200 (+9.6%) | |
| Uber | Price when said: $65.25 Fair value: $90 (+38%) |