Joseph Carlson's $200 fair value for Texas Roadhouse

What was said

Regardless, Texas Roadhouse is a fantastic company. It's trading at 186 today. There's concerns about beef pricing and commodity inflation, but I believe that Texas Roadhouse will navigate that better than any of its competitors, which creates that really strong traffic growth in the company. We have KPIs that track this over time and it shows that the weekly average sales for the company continue to rise. They're now making $177,000 in sales every week on average. When I was first buying this company, it was less than a 100K. So, really impressive growth there. I really like what I see with this company. But, in terms of my fair value, I believe it's worth today around $200 per share.

Carlson said he had trimmed half of his Texas Roadhouse position because he did not want a restaurant to take up that much of his portfolio. After giving the fair value he said the stock was about 5-6% undervalued and that he did not see a large disconnect in the price.

The estimate

A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.

Why fair value estimates are not checked