No deadline · not checked
- Price when said
- $1,566 closeprice data
- Fair value
- $1,800+15%
Joseph Carlson's $1,800 fair value for ASML
On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of ASML at $1,800 per share on YouTube. ASML closed at $1,566 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 15% above the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.
Updated
What was said
Joseph Carlson
Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 14:43Source
14 fair value estimates
So, I took some off the table and I still wanted to keep a large position in ASML, and that's where we stand now. Now, when I look at this company, there is the mathematical valuation of it, which puts it around $1,500 per share, but then when I do my fair value assessment and I factor in the strength of the moat and how unique it is, I bump up my fair value a little bit more. So, my fair value, my price target is around $1,800 per share.
Carlson said a purely mathematical valuation puts ASML around $1,500 per share, and that he raised his fair value for the strength and uniqueness of its moat and the demand for its products. He said the stock is a little undervalued.
The estimate
A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.
Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson 13
| Asset | Said | Price when said → Fair value |
|---|---|---|
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| Mastercard | Price when said: $638.01 Fair value: $700 (+9.7%) | |
| Meta Platforms | Price when said: $614.99 Fair value: $850 (+38%) | |
| Microsoft | Price when said: $521.91 Fair value: $550 (+5.4%) | |
| Moody's | Price when said: $493.91 Fair value: $500 (+1.2%) | |
| Netflix | Price when said: $62.08 Fair value: $100 (+61%) | |
| S&P Global | Price when said: $466.55 Fair value: $550 (+18%) | |
| Texas Roadhouse | Price when said: $182.52 Fair value: $200 (+9.6%) | |
| Uber | Price when said: $65.25 Fair value: $90 (+38%) |