No deadline · not checked
- Price when said
- $521.91 closeprice data
- Fair value
- $550+5.4%
Joseph Carlson's $550 fair value for Microsoft
On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of Microsoft at $550 per share on YouTube. Microsoft closed at $521.91 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 5.4% above the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.
Updated
What was said
Joseph Carlson
Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 13:05Source
14 fair value estimates
I put Microsoft's fair value, or my price target, at 550.
Carlson said Microsoft already trades at a 25 forward P/E and a 1.57 free cash flow yield after recovering this year from a cloud and software scare. He said it is trading close to his fair value and is not deeply undervalued.
The estimate
A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.
Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson 13
| Asset | Said | Price when said → Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | Price when said: $279.84 Fair value: $350 (+25%) | |
| Amazon | Price when said: $240.35 Fair value: $350 (+46%) | |
| ASML | Price when said: $1,566 Fair value: $1,800 (+15%) | |
| Costco | Price when said: $1,012 Fair value: $800 (−21%) | |
| DoorDash | Price when said: $178.99 Fair value: $250 (+40%) | |
| Duolingo | Price when said: $131.59 Fair value: $200 (+52%) | |
| Mastercard | Price when said: $638.01 Fair value: $700 (+9.7%) | |
| Meta Platforms | Price when said: $614.99 Fair value: $850 (+38%) | |
| Moody's | Price when said: $493.91 Fair value: $500 (+1.2%) | |
| Netflix | Price when said: $62.08 Fair value: $100 (+61%) | |
| S&P Global | Price when said: $466.55 Fair value: $550 (+18%) | |
| Texas Roadhouse | Price when said: $182.52 Fair value: $200 (+9.6%) | |
| Uber | Price when said: $65.25 Fair value: $90 (+38%) |