No deadline · not checked
- Price when said
- $131.59 closeprice data
- Fair value
- $200+52%
Joseph Carlson's $200 fair value for Duolingo
On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of Duolingo at $200 per share on YouTube. Duolingo closed at $131.59 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 52% above the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.
Updated
What was said
Joseph Carlson
Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 20:58Source
14 fair value estimates
Duolingo currently trades at $135. I believe the fair value today is around $200, which is lower than my previous fair values on this company.
Carlson said he lowered his fair value because Duolingo's growth slowed more than he expected and the company is trading off monetization for user growth. He said the company reports earnings the next day and his fair value could change after it.
The estimate
A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.
Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson 13
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