No deadline · not checked
- Price when said
- $1,012 closeprice data
- Fair value
- $800−21%
Joseph Carlson's $800 fair value for Costco
On November 2, 2026, Joseph Carlson estimated the fair value of Costco at $800 per share on YouTube. Costco closed at $1,012 on October 30, 2026, the trading day before, so the estimate was 21% below the price when said. Joseph Carlson gave no date by which the price should reach it, so this is a fair value estimate, not a prediction: we record it as said and do not mark it as Hit or Missed.
Updated
What was said
Joseph Carlson
Host of the YouTube channels Joseph Carlson and Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube, Nov 2, 2026, at 15:39Source
14 fair value estimates
When I look at Costco, I believe the stock is overvalued to some degree. So, right now it trades at $1,000 per share. I think it's worth around $800. That's my fair value.
Carlson said Costco trades at a P/E of 45 or 46, and that even at $800 it would trade around a 40 P/E, which he called a generous premium valuation. He said the stock could see multiple compression if the company shows weakness in any category.
The estimate
A fair value estimate is the speaker's view of what an asset is worth, given without a date by which the price should get there. With no deadline there is nothing to check, so we record the estimate as said, next to the close of the day before, and never mark it as Hit or Missed.
Fair value estimates: Joseph Carlson 13
| Asset | Said | Price when said → Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | Price when said: $279.84 Fair value: $350 (+25%) | |
| Amazon | Price when said: $240.35 Fair value: $350 (+46%) | |
| ASML | Price when said: $1,566 Fair value: $1,800 (+15%) | |
| DoorDash | Price when said: $178.99 Fair value: $250 (+40%) | |
| Duolingo | Price when said: $131.59 Fair value: $200 (+52%) | |
| Mastercard | Price when said: $638.01 Fair value: $700 (+9.7%) | |
| Meta Platforms | Price when said: $614.99 Fair value: $850 (+38%) | |
| Microsoft | Price when said: $521.91 Fair value: $550 (+5.4%) | |
| Moody's | Price when said: $493.91 Fair value: $500 (+1.2%) | |
| Netflix | Price when said: $62.08 Fair value: $100 (+61%) | |
| S&P Global | Price when said: $466.55 Fair value: $550 (+18%) | |
| Texas Roadhouse | Price when said: $182.52 Fair value: $200 (+9.6%) | |
| Uber | Price when said: $65.25 Fair value: $90 (+38%) |