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PredictionVerifier

PlanB's price predictions

Pseudonymous bitcoin analyst; author of the bitcoin stock-to-flow model

PlanB is the pseudonym of an analyst described in the press as a Dutch institutional investor, who publishes bitcoin analysis on X as @100trillionUSD. In March 2019 he published the article "Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity" on Medium, which set out a stock-to-flow model of bitcoin's value, and in April 2020 an extension, the "Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model".

Gives price targets for bitcoin, most of them derived from his stock-to-flow models and tied to the four-year halving cycle, which crypto news outlets then report. The deadlines are a month-end, the end of a calendar year or a multi-year period, and the targets are for prices to rise.

Predictions
7
Hit
2
Missed
4
Open
1

As of September 30, 2026, we track 7 price predictions PlanB made between 2021 and 2025. Two came true, four did not and one is open. All were about Bitcoin. All had deadlines at the end of a calendar year.

Notable calls

The open, came-true and missed call with the largest move from the price when said. A selection, not a rating.

Open predictions 1

Open price predictions by PlanB, by deadline year
AssetSaidPrice then → TargetDeadline
BitcoinPrice when said: $114,216 Target: $300,000 (+163%)

Resolved predictions 6

Resolved price predictions by PlanB, by deadline year
AssetSaidPrice then → TargetDeadlineOutcome
BitcoinPrice when said: $97,677 Target: $270,000 (+176%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $63,514 Target: $300,000 (+372%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $19,935 Target: $100,000 (+402%)Hit
BitcoinPrice when said: $44,221 Target: $100,000 (+126%)Hit
BitcoinPrice when said: $40,537 Target: $100,000 (+147%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $63,309 Target: $100,000 (+58%)Missed