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Mike Wilson: S&P 500 at or above 2,750 on Dec 31, 2019

Mike Wilson's prediction that S&P 500 would be at or above 2,750 on December 31, 2019 came true. The close on the deadline decided this call: S&P 500 closed at 3,231 on December 31, 2019, the deadline. Mike Wilson made the call in a research note on November 26, 2018, when S&P 500 was at 2,633. The target needed a 4.5% rise in one year and one month.

Updated

What was said

Mike Wilson

Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Research note, Nov 26, 2018SourceArchive

2 predictions · 1 hit · 1 missed

Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that he "sees more of the same" stagnant performance from the major indexes in 2019 and forecasts the S&P 500 finishes next year at 2,750, just 3 percent above current levels.

Wilson expected another range-bound year driven by disappointing earnings and a Fed that pauses. He wrote that decelerating GDP growth, as the effect of tax cuts wears off and interest rates rise, would weigh on corporate sales growth, and he saw a greater than 50 percent chance of a modest earnings recession in 2019. He also pointed to tighter financial conditions imposed by the Federal Reserve.

How we checked this

HitDeadline

Price when said
2,633 closeprice data
Target
2,750+4.5%
Close on the deadline
3,231price data

The close of the last trading day on or before Dec 31, 2019 decides: the prediction comes true if that close is at or above 2,750. Prices are daily closes, not intraday highs.

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