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Mike Wilson: S&P 500 to 3,900 by Dec 31, 2023

Mike Wilson's prediction that S&P 500 would fall to 3,900 by December 31, 2023 did not come true. S&P 500's lowest close before the deadline was 4,117 on October 27, 2023, 5.6% above the target. Mike Wilson made the call on CNBC on October 16, 2023, when S&P 500 was at 4,328. The target needed a 9.9% fall in two months.

Updated

What was said

Mike Wilson

Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley

CNBC, Oct 16, 2023SourceArchive

2 predictions · 1 hit · 1 missed

Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023.

Wilson said higher rates and slower growth were pressuring equities and that only 39% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 200-day moving average, with even mega-cap leadership losing momentum. He wrote that the average stock had already broken down technically and that most sectors showed weakening breadth. He cited cautious factor leadership, a recent decline in earnings revisions and fading consumer confidence as reducing the odds of a fourth-quarter rally.

How we checked this

MissedDeadline

Price when said
4,328 closeprice data
Target
3,900−9.9%
Lowest close
4,117price data

The prediction comes true if any daily close from Oct 16, 2023 to Dec 31, 2023, inclusive, is at or below 3,900. Prices are daily closes, not intraday highs.

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