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PredictionVerifier
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Arthur Hayes' price predictions

Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom

Arthur Hayes is chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, an investment fund managed by his family office. He co-founded the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX in 2014 and was its chief executive until 2020, after working as an equity derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup in Hong Kong. He publishes long-form essays on markets and crypto in his newsletter Crypto Trader Digest.

Gives price targets for bitcoin, ether and other crypto tokens, most often in his own essays and in conference talks and interviews that crypto and business outlets then report. The deadlines range from the end of the current year to multi-year targets for the peak of a market cycle, and most of the targets are for prices to rise, with occasional calls for a decline first.

Predictions
8
Hit
2
Missed
3
Open
3

As of September 30, 2026, we track 8 price predictions Arthur Hayes made between 2020 and 2026. Two came true, three did not and three are open. They were about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Most had deadlines at the end of a calendar year.

Notable calls

The open, came-true and missed call with the largest move from the price when said. A selection, not a rating.

Open predictions 3

Open price predictions by Arthur Hayes, by deadline year
AssetSaidPrice then → TargetDeadline
BitcoinPrice when said: $76,349 Target: $500,000 (+555%)
EthereumPrice when said: $1,859 Target: $5,000 (+169%)
BitcoinPrice when said: $97,058 Target: $1,000,000 (+930%)

Resolved predictions 5

Resolved price predictions by Arthur Hayes, by deadline year
AssetSaidPrice then → TargetDeadlineOutcome
EthereumPrice when said: $3,630 Target: $10,000 (+175%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $82,534 Target: $250,000 (+203%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $28,070 Target: $70,000 (+149%)Hit
EthereumPrice when said: $1,608 Target: $5,000 (+211%)Missed
BitcoinPrice when said: $7,370 Target: $20,000 (+171%)Hit