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Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by Dec 31, 2028

As of September 28, 2026, Arthur Hayes' prediction that Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2028 is open. Arthur Hayes made the call on CoinDesk on May 8, 2025, when Bitcoin was at $97,058. The target calls for a 930% rise in three years and eight months.

Updated

What was said

Photo of Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes

Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom

CoinDesk, May 8, 2025SourceArchive

8 predictions · 2 hit · 3 missed · 3 open

Photo: When Shift Happens, CC BY 3.0

That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.

Hayes argued that the Treasury Department, not the Federal Reserve, drives global liquidity, pointing to Treasury buybacks and auction strategies used to manage a growing U.S. debt load. He tied the forecast to that liquidity combined with America's inability to rein in spending. He also expected U.S.-China trade diplomacy to lead toward capital controls and continued Chinese buying of U.S. assets, which he said means more money in the system for bitcoin to absorb.

How we checked this

OpenDeadline

Price when said
$97,058 closeprice data
Target
$1,000,000+930%

The prediction comes true if any daily close from May 8, 2025 to Dec 31, 2028, inclusive, is at or above $1,000,000. Prices are daily closes in UTC, not intraday highs.

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