Skip to content
PredictionVerifier

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $250,000 by Dec 31, 2025

Arthur Hayes' prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025 did not come true. Bitcoin's best close before the deadline was $124,720 on October 6, 2025, 50% below the target. Arthur Hayes made the call on Cointelegraph on April 1, 2025, when Bitcoin was at $82,534. The target needed a 203% rise in nine months.

Updated

What was said

Photo of Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes

Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder, Maelstrom

Cointelegraph, Apr 1, 2025SourceArchive

8 predictions · 2 hit · 3 missed · 3 open

Photo: When Shift Happens, CC BY 3.0

I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars

Hayes argued that Bitcoin trades on market expectations for the future supply of fiat money. He pointed to the Fed cutting its Treasury runoff cap and possibly reinvesting MBS principal into Treasurys, which he called treasury QE, and said the Fed will flood the market with dollars. He added that this would let China's central bank stop tightening to defend the dollar-yuan rate, increasing the quantity of yuan.

How we checked this

MissedDeadline

Price when said
$82,534 closeprice data
Target
$250,000+203%
Best close
$124,720price data

The prediction comes true if any daily close from Apr 1, 2025 to Dec 31, 2025, inclusive, is at or above $250,000. Prices are daily closes in UTC, not intraday highs.

How we check predictions

More from Arthur Hayes

Other Bitcoin predictions